Every year, more than a million people drive on the Lyft platform. Some of them drive full-time to support themselves, others for just a few hours to bring in extra money. But all of them are Lyft’s customers, using our platform to serve riders and connect them to the world. 

Increasingly, they’ll be joined by a new type of vehicle — autonomous vehicles, or AVs. This is not some far-off future. We recently signed agreements with partners like May Mobility, Mobileye, and Marubeni to start rolling out AVs on our platform as soon as this summer. And over time, AVs will account for a larger share of cars, and a larger percentage of rides.

This reality has generated a lot of speculation about what this new technology will mean for drivers, both now and in the future. We don’t have all the answers, but want to be transparent about our expectations, plans, and commitments. Put simply, over time AVs will certainly change the dynamics of the rideshare marketplace. But there will still be plenty of opportunity for drivers, and we are committed to helping them continue to thrive on and off our platform.

First, I’d like to address a common misconception. Some think of rideshare as a zero-sum game, where every new AV on the road takes a ride away from a driver. Our experience and data suggests this is untrue. In Phoenix and San Francisco, the rideshare market has grown faster than the national average. That’s because AVs don’t just compete with drivers for a slice of the rideshare pie; they grow the pie.

Here’s why. Adding cars to our platform — whether they’re driven by humans or AVs — improves arrival times and creates a better rider experience. That gets people to take more rides, creating more opportunities for drivers. It’s a virtuous circle, and it’s as close to an economic law as exists in the rideshare industry. 

As AVs improve city trips, fewer people may feel the need to drive or own cars at all — leading them to take more AV and human-powered rides. We think AVs will grow the whole rideshare pie, potentially exponentially. (And there’s still plenty of room for that pie to grow. Today, the rideshare industry only accounts for 2% of car rides in the U.S.) 

Of course, none of this will happen overnight. Technology is rapidly advancing, but it will take time for AVs to achieve their full potential. In the meantime, we see things developing in phases — and we are deeply considering how each phase could impact drivers, and how to provide new opportunities along the way.

In the short term, we don’t see AVs having much of an impact on driver earnings. This is an exploratory phase, when AVs are still something of a novelty. Yes, some riders have made them a part of their daily routine, but there are many more who are trying one for the very first time, just to see what it is like. This is, for the most part, a special use case, and doesn’t impact their day-to-day rideshare activity. 

Of course, this novelty phase won’t last forever, and riders will start turning to AVs more regularly. Even then, we don’t expect drivers to feel the impact immediately. That’s because of the inconvenient fact that, at least for the time being, there are still many rides that AVs just aren’t equipped to handle. They can’t travel in certain kinds of weather, or under certain lighting conditions, or on certain kinds of roads. There also aren’t nearly enough of them to provide for a city’s entire transportation needs — or even a very large percentage. Especially in moments of high demand like during morning commutes or after a concert, the rideshare marketplace simply needs human drivers, and lots of them. 

Over time, AVs will become more affordable and more capable. They will be able to complete more rides, under more conditions, than they do today. As they do, they’ll represent a larger share of rides on our platform — enough that, even with the growing pie, drivers will start to feel the impact. And that’s when we’ll know we’ve reached the second phase, when AVs join humans in a true hybrid network.

In a previous life, I was a national organizing director with the United Food and Commercial Workers Union (UFCW). In the early 2000s, we found ourselves facing what we saw as an existential threat: automated check-out counters. They were cheaper than human checkers, and you could fit many more of them in a store, increasing throughput and cutting wait times for shoppers. It seemed obvious that, as groceries turned to automated check-out, there would be fewer and fewer jobs for humans.

If you’ve been to a grocery store lately, you know that’s not how things worked out. Most groceries now have automated checkers and human checkers, for those who need extra help, have a large amount of groceries to process and bag, or just prefer the human touch. In stores with fewer human checkers, many of those clerks have been reassigned to provide better service on the floor, rather than eliminated entirely. Retail cashier employment was impacted, but the best estimate is that those positions shrunk some 3 to 5% over the last decade — much, much less impact than many expected.  

The point is that, even when technology encroaches on human jobs, it doesn’t eliminate the need for humans altogether — especially when workers can provide value that the machines cannot.

So while some human advantages may fade over time — like the ability to drive on highways or in snow — some never will. An AV won’t help you with your luggage or give a hand to an elderly rider. It won’t tell you a joke. And, at a time when we spend less and less time with other people, it won’t provide a moment of human connection — asking about your day or sharing a story or giving an insider’s view of the city. To my mind, that’s still the best part of the Lyft experience. 

That’s why doubling down on great service will remain the best way for drivers to find meaningful earning opportunities on our platform. In a hybrid world, riders will still want human drivers — as long as they are providing the kind of experience that doesn’t just compete with AVs, but offers something wholly unique. Humans are features, not bugs, and we’ll continue to find a way to reward those that provide great service as part of a thriving hybrid network. 

For the foreseeable future, AVs will be too expensive for most car buyers to purchase. They’ll be owned by large OEMs, AV companies and fleet owners, who will deploy them across our platform. But over time, AV features will become cheaper and more ubiquitous, in the same way that most cars now come with safety features like blind spot detection and anti-lock brakes. And as that happens, we will continue to partner with car companies, AV companies, and data providers so all AVs can roll off the lot “Lyft ready,” with turnkey access to our platform. 

This will unlock exciting new business and earnings opportunities. Drivers today come to the Lyft platform for many reasons, but one of the main draws is the flexibility it offers. They can choose when they work, and for how long. (91% drive for less than 20 hours a week.) They can start and stop at any time. The only limit is their own schedule, since they need to be available to drive. This is a very real hurdle today, but over time, personally-owned AVs will remove even this limit — allowing people to earn while they are working another job, or taking care of their families, or sleeping.

In fact, helping drivers transition into the world of personal AV ownership is core to our strategy. Because of our scale across the U.S. and Canada, we have relationships with autonomous tech providers, auto manufacturers, financial institutions, and governments at every level. This gives us the ability to democratize access to AVs — through things like novel financing arrangements or commonsense policy frameworks. In much the same way our Express Drive program makes it easier for anyone to participate in our platform through driver-friendly rentals, we will seek to bring down cost and barriers to adoption for AVs. 

For motivated drivers, this will present entirely new opportunities for entrepreneurship. With lower barriers to entry and without time constraints, today’s drivers may choose to own not just one AV, but entire small fleets. Much as Airbnb powered a generation of host-entrepreneurs, we hope to see Lyft’s AV platform sparking a new wave of driver-entrepreneurs. 

We are confident in this vision, even if it may seem far off today. But even so, we know that not every current driver will want to become an AV entrepreneur — especially for those who see Lyft as a part-time or short-term way to earn while they pursue other opportunities. That’s why we’re dedicated to helping all drivers – now and in a hybrid AV future – use Lyft as a springboard for growth, on and off the platform. 

We cannot pretend to have all the answers for how this will roll out. But we will build on our demonstrated commitment to providing economic mobility to drivers. Our partnership with Merit America provides job training for drivers seeking to advance their careers. Innovative products like our Driver Accomplishments AI letter supplies job seekers with documentation of their good work on our platform. And tools like the Lyft Direct card or our Stride partnerships give meaningful benefits to active drivers.

What’s more, we expect the AV economy to create entirely new opportunities on our platform. AVs will likely always need remote vehicle support and operational staff to manage unusual circumstances. AI maps will need labeling and validation. And fleet management will require hands-on work to service, maintain, and charge AVs, jobs for which drivers are well suited. (Indeed, 30% of the staff of our Flexdrive subsidiary are former or current drivers with Lyft.) As the AV economy develops, we’ll remain committed to helping drivers find opportunities that work for them.  

The road to AV adoption will undoubtedly be twisty, with many switchbacks and surprises. But one thing that will not change is our commitment to drivers — and to manage this transition in a way that respects the enormous value they contribute to our communities, and ensures they continue to have meaningful earning opportunities.

Certain statements contained in this post are “forward-looking statements” about Lyft within the meaning of the securities laws, including statements about Lyft’s autonomous vehicle strategy and partnerships and related plans, expectations, technologies, and benefits for drivers and riders. Such statements, which are not of historical fact, involve estimates, assumptions, judgments and uncertainties. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those addressed in the forward-looking statements. Such factors are detailed in Lyft’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Lyft does not undertake an obligation to update its forward-looking statements to reflect future events, except as required by applicable law.