
As the CEO of a rideshare company, I pay a lot of attention to how people get around. Usually, it’s fairly subtle stuff: how many fellow bikers I see on the way to the office every day, how Tuesday traffic differs from Friday traffic, that kind of thing. But over the past year, the change in San Francisco has been dramatic. I can’t go two blocks without seeing a self-driving car.
We are at the beginning of another transportation revolution. Autonomous vehicles (AVs) promise to reshape how we spend our time, how we get around, and even how we build our cities. This revolution will not happen overnight. The autonomous industry is still emerging and rapidly changing, with dozens of players already on the field and many more yet to come. The regulatory environment is still evolving, with huge consequences for how — and how quickly — AVs roll out around the world. And of course we are still several technological breakthroughs away from ubiquitous, affordable AVs that can handle any kind of weather, traffic, and terrain.
But the contours of this emerging technology and the industry around it are becoming clear.
When I look at new technology, I find it helpful to create a framework that lets me better understand how the pieces fit together. Here’s how I see the AV industry developing over the next several years, and how I measure our progress toward the full potential of this revolution.
The autonomous vehicle value chain
Building new technology is one thing. Deploying it successfully to millions of consumers is quite another. That’s why bringing AVs to market requires a number of distinct components working together in one value chain. In today’s landscape, some companies perform several of these functions. But the dominant way to complete the entire chain is through partnership, allowing each company to focus on what it does best.

Self-driving technology — The technology stack (e.g., algorithms, cameras, LIDAR, and radar sensors; GPUs for AI/ML decision-making; routing systems) that help a vehicle navigate safely. For now, self-driving systems also require remote operations and teleassist programs staffed by humans, especially as AVs continue to learn how to navigate real-world situations. Companies like Waymo, Tesla, May Mobility, and Mobileye have spent years and many billions of dollars developing these systems — and are looking to commercialize them to get a return on that investment.
Vehicle manufacturing — The production and assembly of vehicles that can be driven autonomously. Companies like Waymo have outfitted existing vehicles (e.g., Jaguar I-PACE) with self-driving systems, OEMs like GM are integrating self-driving systems into their fleet, and others like Zoox and Tesla plan to deploy purpose-built AVs of their own.
Asset ownership & financing — The purchase and ownership of the AVs themselves, or the financing of their ownership. Today, AVs are primarily owned by the technology companies that built them. But over time, other large corporate players who specialize in asset management will buy their own fleets. Companies like Marubeni currently play a financing role when it comes to asset ownership. Because AVs are expensive, companies in an ownership or financing role will need to maximize utilization — i.e., keep those vehicles in service as many hours of the day as possible — for a good return on their investment.
Fleet management — The end-to-end management of a vehicle’s lifecycle from onboarding to offboarding, including service, repair, maintenance, charging, remote operations, and the physical infrastructure required for all of the above. Efficient fleet management will be critical to the business model of AVs, since any downtime — whether for routine maintenance, charging, cleaning, or repairs — results in lost revenue. Today, fleet management has to be focused on high-mileage, high-wear and tear commercial use cases. In the future, fleet management companies may also need to contemplate the integration of payment systems so multiple fleet owners can plug in, whether they are individual or scaled owners.
Mobility platform & marketplace — The engine that manages supply and demand, forecasting, pricing, incentives, merchandising, matching, and fulfillment for ride-hailing requests. The average consumer experiences this as the tap of a button on an app, but that simplicity masks extraordinary complexity. Seven days a week, 24 hours a day, and in every single trip, billions of data points and countless calculations have to be balanced in order to accommodate requests for pick-up, ETAs, real-time routes, mapping, efficient drop-off locations, rider prices, driver payments, and more. Rideshare companies have built these capabilities over the last decade.
Rider demand & experience — The in-ride and customer-facing experience that includes onboarding, payment collection, and customer support, as well as safety infrastructure and critical response mechanisms. Outside of the in-app experience, this also requires building a rider base through marketing, brand love and loyalty, and other consumer outreach. This is a crucial step to making the economics of AVs work. No one company needs to capture every single rider, or even the lion’s share of riders, but it has to generate enough demand and convert it into rides at the right price to make money for itself and the asset-owners.
This is a rough outline. We are still in this industry’s nascent stages, and some of these functions could consolidate or shift around, depending on how things develop. And there are other functions, not listed here, that touch several parts of this chain. Take insurance, for example. We can imagine a world in which product liability will lie with the AV companies and manufacturers, TNC insurance will sit with the fleet manager, and the mobility platform will likely have a role to play in claims management, but there are other ways this could play out.
Could one company provide all of these functions? Maybe. But history suggests that innovation and consumers are best served when companies with unique areas of expertise collaborate and share value. Look at the telephone. Alexander Graham Bell’s groundbreaking, clunky, homebound device has become a supercomputer that fits in your pocket. Apple is a famously vertically-integrated company, and it produces many components that made the iPhone so successful — the operating system, hardware, and now the microprocessors. But even Apple depends on countless partners to deliver that final product, from retailers to cell and wireless service providers to repair centers to millions of app developers. (Google’s Pixel phone is similar.) Now, translate that to a task as complex as physically moving humans around. I firmly believe that it will take multiple, strong players to realize the full commercial potential of AVs.
Lyft’s place in the autonomous future
I’m not a neutral observer. I’m rooting for AVs, not just as a consumer, but because I think they’ll be great for Lyft, as well as the riders and drivers on our platform. AVs grow the overall rideshare market by providing a safe, engaging, novel mode of transportation, making it even easier for people to get out and about. And like any successful new product, its supply tends to create its own demand. In cities like San Francisco and Phoenix, where AVs are already on the roads, we haven’t seen any meaningful change in demand for (human-driven) rides — in fact, in Phoenix, our strong growth suggests that there is ample opportunity and interest for all parties. Rideshare is not a zero-sum game, and we believe that AVs grow the pie.
What’s more, we’ve got a clear view of our core competencies, and how they can fit into the value chain I laid out above. That’s why we sold our Level 5 division — which developed AV technology — back in 2021 so we could focus on areas where our expertise truly differentiates us. We also do not manufacture cars. The companies that have spent decades honing those abilities are best qualified to lead on innovation there.
For our part, Lyft has unique expertise toward the middle and end of the value chain with asset ownership & financing, fleet management, the mobility platform & marketplace, and rider demand & experience. Bringing new transportation options into the lived experience of millions of customers every day is what we’ve done since 2012, when peer-to-peer rideshare sparked the last transportation revolution.
Specifically:
Lyft’s Flexdrive subsidiary has years of experience managing and owning vehicles. By and large, Lyft is an asset-light business and does not own the cars that operate on our marketplace. That said, we have a strong balance sheet and substantive experience owning vehicles via Flexdrive. We will continue performing this function in the years to come, selectively purchasing and operating relatively small fleets of AVs for R&D purposes and to unlock partnership opportunities with other major players in the space.
Fleets under our management maintained nearly 90% utilization on our platform. Through Flexdrive, we are the only major U.S. rideshare player with in-house direct fleet management capabilities. Other companies rely on third party systems, which aren’t purpose-built to manage high-mileage fleets at scale. Our end-to-end fleet management technology covers fleet health and dashboards as well as real-time vehicle status, tracking and controls, allowing us to make the smartest decisions about charging, maintenance, repairs, and so on. This system includes vehicle documents and logs the history of vehicle events, inspections, damage, and service, so efficient plans can be made for fleet deployment. We maximize utilization by defining clear SLAs, maintaining oversight of interdependent tasks, coordinating across vendors, and managing knowledge centrally. Flexdrive represents the closest thing to commercial AV fleet management that exists today.
Our marketplace matches well over 2 million rides per day across all fifty states and Canada. Lyft is one of very few companies to have created a large-scale, thriving two-sided transportation marketplace in North America. It requires ongoing investment to ensure that maps are up to date, traffic is accurately captured, prices and earnings are both competitive, and much more. We also process payments to ensure millions of ride providers are paid quickly and seamlessly, something that will be incredibly important for fleet operators and individual AV owners.
We have built a brand that more than 44 million riders turned to last year. Our commitment to safety and great customer experience have made us a trusted part of many riders’ daily lives. That familiarity and excellent safety record is critical in giving people a comfortable way to try out new technologies. With this foundation, we look forward to partnering as a turnkey solution for early adoption and demand generation.
Our AV strategy, then, is clear. Our world-class fleet management, sophisticated marketplace engine, and large-scale demand represent the best way for AV companies, OEM manufacturers, and fleet owners to commercialize their assets. We partner with those companies to bring exceptional autonomous transportation experiences to riders at scale.

The present and future of autonomous rideshare
This framework is a guide to understanding the AV landscape as it develops in the months and years ahead. Initially, most of the participants will be larger players — the big AV companies, manufacturers, and fleet owners that have the capital to invest in new technologies and test markets. This is who I already see on the roads and expect to see more of in the next year.
Over time, new AV technology players will get involved. As AI advances, as the technology becomes better understood, and especially as companies work to merge software and hardware developments into simpler, more cost-effective solutions, there will be a lower barrier to join the earlier parts of the value chain. Smaller tech companies and startups will be able to build specialized experiences based on the innovations of their deep-pocketed predecessors, and technological breakthroughs will hasten the speed at which AVs become commonplace. If there’s one thing I’ve learned through decades in the tech world, it’s that innovation never stops.
As the cost of AV technology comes down and the availability broadens, we want every self-driving car to be “Lyft-ready,” with turnkey access to our platform. That will make it possible for small and medium-sized fleet owners to invest in AV fleets that can be integrated into our supply the same way Black car and livery fleets are today. A little further down the road, when “Lyft-ready” AV features come standard in every car, any car owner will become a potential partner.
This will be the tipping point for the revolution. Mass-market Lyft-ready AVs will exponentially grow supply (which is great for riders), while also unlocking new opportunities for earners (which is great for drivers and other individuals). People will have the option to keep driving with Lyft as they do today, or use their cars to earn money while they spend their time in other meaningful ways — meeting up with a friend, catching up on sleep, or starting another entrepreneurial venture.
This is one example of how AVs will be a very powerful tool in support of our purpose, to serve and connect. In the modern era, one of the scarcest resources is time — especially time spent connecting with others. By providing cheaper, safer, more environmentally-conscious transportation, AVs will make it more convenient than ever for people to get out and experience the moments that matter most to them. And earners will have even more flexibility to decide how they want to spend their time — on and off the road. Ultimately, that is what this revolution is all about. After all, as thrilling as AVs are, they are only worthwhile if they meaningfully improve human lives.
Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements contained in this post are “forward-looking statements” about Lyft within the meaning of the securities laws, including statements about Lyft’s autonomous vehicle strategy and partnerships and related plans, expectations, technologies, and benefits for drivers and riders. Such statements, which are not of historical fact, involve estimates, assumptions, judgments and uncertainties. There are a number of factors that could cause actual results or outcomes to differ materially from those addressed in the forward-looking statements. Such factors are detailed in Lyft’s filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Lyft does not undertake an obligation to update its forward-looking statements to reflect future events, except as required by applicable law.